auto dealer in black and red logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

June Auto Sales Forecast Cloudy

High prices and interest rates, paired with flat incentives, dampen demand.

June 25, 2025
June Auto Sales Forecast Cloudy

Average monthly finance payments look to hit $747 this month, up 3% and a record for June.

Credit:

Pexels/InstaWalli

2 min to read


When a mix of unusual factors has been sifted, retail new-vehicle demand has proven to be muted this month.

The preliminary results from a J.D.Power-GlobalData forecast come as no surprise to an industry in limbo as the U.S. awaits ultimate outcomes of frequently shifting trade policy. 

Many consumers, already strapped with inflated vehicle prices and still-high interest rates, continue to hold off on vehicle purchases. Those pulling the trigger are paying more amid record finance payments.

Though June retail sales are up 7% year-over-year to a projected one million units, last June’s numbers took about an 85,000-unit hit due to CDK Global’s auto dealer software outage from a pair of cyberattacks, J.D. Power said.

Meanwhile, new-vehicle sales surged back in March and April by an estimated 173,000 units combined as consumers rushed to beat trade tariff price inflation, now-retreated demand that’s deflated June deliveries.

Further dampening sales are stagnant incentives. Though the purchase perks are up on their face by 2% year-over-year and 4% over May to a projected average of $2,727 per vehicle, they’re essentially flat at 5% of the average manufacturer’s suggested retail price, according to the forecast. That’s down from 6% in January.

The average transaction price for the month is an estimated $46,233, up 3% year-over-year. Meanwhile, average monthly finance payments look to hit $747, also up 3% and a record for June, J.D. Power said. Loans exceeding 84 months, or seven years, are on track to make up 12% of financed June sales, up three percentage points.

Before the Trump administration started raising import tariffs in March, automaker incentives were expected to rise this year, J.D. Power said. Instead, the companies are pulling back in reaction to the tariffs while many hold off on sticker price spikes.

“This reflects the cost-pressure tariffs are creating for manufacturers, but it is also causing some shoppers looking for affordable vehicles to remain on the sidelines,” said president of J.D. Power’s Data and Analytics Division Thomas King.

LEARN MORE: How Your Dealership Can Weather This Economic Uncertainty

More Industry

Dealer Debrief with Lauren Lawrence, 05/07/2026, Auto Dealer Today
Industryby Lauren LawrenceMay 8, 2026

Dealer Debrief: Credit Scores & Exec Moves

In this week's debrief, host Lauren Lawrence covers bad credit scores, executive moves and a dealership acquisition.

Read More →
Shifting Loan Demands A Sign of the Times, Loan Application paperwork with a pen and a car outline, Auto Dealer Today
Industryby Lauren LawrenceMay 8, 2026

Auto Loan Outlook Shows Cracks

Recent survey data shows that the overall demand for auto loans is down, but the demand for subprime loans is up as consumers face economic uncertainty and affordability pressures.

Read More →
Cover image for a BOK Financial report titled “Timing the market: How avoiding volatility entirely can hurt long-term reinsurance program performance.” The image shows several road construction barricades with flashing amber warning lights lined up in a nighttime work zone. Beneath the image, red text explains that avoiding volatility can mean falling behind inflation and missing market rebounds that drive long-term surplus growth. The BOK Financial logo appears at the bottom right.
SponsoredMay 8, 2026

Timing the Market Can Hurt Long-Term Program Performance

For dealer-owned reinsurance entities, avoiding volatility entirely can mean falling behind inflation and missing market rebounds that drive long term surplus growth. Missing just a handful of strong market days can materially impact cumulative returns—an important reminder for long horizon trust and investment strategies.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Auto Dealer today, Dealer Debrief, 05/01/2026 with Lauren Lawrence
Industryby Lauren LawrenceMay 1, 2026

Dealer Debrief: New & Used Sales Trends

In this week's debrief, host Lauren Lawrence covers new and used vehicle sales trends from March.

Read More →
white Chevrolet Equinox being temperature tested
Fixed Opsby Lauren LawrenceMay 1, 2026

Extreme Temps Hinder EV Efficiency

American consumers might be happy to know that their preferred hybrids are slightly less impacted by extreme temperatures than fully electric vehicles, according to a new study.

Read More →
Photo of woman at desk using a calculator
Industryby Hannah MitchellMay 1, 2026

A Tale of Haves and Have-Nots

A growing number of consumers are stretching the bounds of auto finance to afford today’s expensive vehicles, ultimately paying a higher price for the now-common scenarios.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Headshot of Michael Orange
Industryby Hannah MitchellApril 24, 2026

Stellantis Names U.S. Sales Head

The former Hyundai and Nissan executive is tasked with increased momentum in the important market as the automaker shifts its strategy amid a turnaround.

Read More →
family in a car, Affordability Out the Window, Auto Dealer Today
Industryby Lauren LawrenceApril 24, 2026

Bad Credit Tanks Attainability

A recent study suggests expectant parents are feeling the burden of bad credit more than other demographics when it comes to buying a new car.

Read More →
Dealer Debrief, 04/23/2026, with Lauren Lawrence, Auto Dealer Today
Industryby Lauren LawrenceApril 23, 2026

Dealer Debrief: Ford HQ and Mercedes Studios

In this week's debrief, host Lauren Lawrence covers Ford HQ renovations, new Mercedes studios, and the state of auto loans in March.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Dealer Debrief 04/15/2026 with Lauren Lawrence
Industryby Lauren LawrenceApril 17, 2026

Dealer Debrief: Exploding Airbags & Risk Management

In this week's Dealer Debrief, host Lauren Lawrence covers a potential air bag ban and reinsurance and risk management.

Read More →